Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.018250 0.020715 0.023398 0.026537 0.030113 0.034059 0.038750
2025-03-16 0.014077 0.017382 0.021302 0.026298 0.032509 0.039991 0.049711
2025-03-23 0.012228 0.015988 0.020714 0.027101 0.035535 0.046323 0.061228
2025-03-30 0.010324 0.014137 0.019158 0.026275 0.036143 0.049402 0.068667
2025-04-06 0.009036 0.012877 0.018143 0.025921 0.037175 0.052954 0.076915
2025-04-13 0.007824 0.011549 0.016842 0.024950 0.037134 0.054880 0.082905
2025-04-20 0.007320 0.011164 0.016812 0.025764 0.039699 0.060730 0.095196
2025-04-27 0.006846 0.010762 0.016694 0.026398 0.042006 0.066353 0.107648
2025-05-04 0.006472 0.010465 0.016691 0.027183 0.044585 0.072589 0.121651
2025-05-11 0.005930 0.009842 0.016106 0.026954 0.045468 0.076135 0.131510
2025-05-18 0.005505 0.009365 0.015706 0.026976 0.046742 0.080399 0.142954
2025-05-25 0.005048 0.008790 0.015084 0.026550 0.047182 0.083242 0.152120
2025-06-01 0.004783 0.008530 0.014989 0.027056 0.049352 0.089386 0.168048
2025-06-08 0.004418 0.008061 0.014489 0.026792 0.050107 0.093064 0.179795
2025-06-15 0.004251 0.007932 0.014580 0.027611 0.052936 0.100805 0.200099
2025-06-22 0.003870 0.007372 0.013829 0.026769 0.052502 0.102299 0.208190
2025-06-29 0.003590 0.006978 0.013354 0.026408 0.052958 0.105534 0.220091
2025-07-06 0.003262 0.006460 0.012598 0.025419 0.052057 0.105967 0.226171
2025-07-13 0.003172 0.006406 0.012739 0.026248 0.054944 0.114352 0.250044
2025-07-20 0.003066 0.006312 0.012790 0.026894 0.057502 0.122274 0.273715
2025-07-27 0.002983 0.006255 0.012912 0.027694 0.060456 0.131301 0.300791
2025-08-03 0.002805 0.005984 0.012567 0.027461 0.061124 0.135401 0.316973
2025-08-10 0.002665 0.005781 0.012350 0.027484 0.062361 0.140870 0.336920